U.S. President Donald Trump had a golden opportunity on July 16: a primetime address to the American people in which he could have explained the most consequential foreign-policy decision of his presidency—the war with Iran—and why it matters to every American.
Instead, he let the moment pass.
Before the speech, I argued in several television interviews that Americans deserve more than assurances that everything is under control. They deserve a clear explanation of why confronting Iran is in America’s national security interest and why this is not another endless Middle East war. This is important because the debate over Iran has become partisan, but the strategic case shouldn’t be.
After two decades of costly wars, Americans are understandably skeptical of military action. But they are also practical. If a president explains the mission, the stakes and why patience is needed, they will be willing to listen.
Trump should have reminded Americans that Iran has been at war with the United States for nearly half a century. Its regime and proxies have murdered American troops, targeted our allies and attacked international shipping. Iran remains the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.
Most important, the president should have explained why a nuclear Iran would change everything.
A nuclear Iran would not merely threaten Israel or America’s Arab partners. It would intimidate the entire region, shield Iran’s terrorist empire beneath a nuclear umbrella and make future military action far more dangerous and costly. Delaying action today only increases the likelihood of a much larger war tomorrow.
Trump also missed the chance to place Iran in a broader global context.
China is watching every American move in the Persian Gulf. If Beijing concludes Washington lacks the political will to stop an expansionist jihadist regime, it may become more willing to test America in the Taiwan Strait. America’s adversaries coordinate their ambitions. Our strategy should recognize that reality.
Perhaps the best explanation of the Iran war came not from the White House but from New York Times columnist Bret Stephens, who compared Iran to an aggressive cancer spreading through the Middle East. Cancer caught early can often be treated. Left to spread, the options become fewer, riskier and far more expensive.
Yet American military power alone will not secure a lasting victory. Washington’s greatest source of leverage is the Iranian people themselves. Tens of millions of them reject the regime that has oppressed them for nearly 50 years. By tightening economic pressure on the regime and its enablers while arming the Iranian opposition, the United States can force the Supreme Leader and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps henchmen to confront the one threat they fear most: a popular uprising that endangers the regime’s survival.
Iran, meanwhile, has a strategy of its own: patience.
Tehran understands American politics almost as well as American military power. It knows that Trump formally notified Congress on July 10 that U.S. forces had returned to hostilities, triggering the timetable established under the War Powers Resolution. Without congressional authorization, the critical deadline arrives in early October, just weeks before the midterm elections.
The regime doesn’t have to defeat the United States militarily. It just has to outlast America’s political attention span.
That is why Trump’s speech mattered.
If Americans understand that today’s campaign is designed to prevent a much larger war tomorrow, they are far more likely to support it. If they remain uncertain about the mission, Tehran’s strategy of waiting out American resolve becomes far more likely to succeed.
Trump still has time to make the case he should have made last week. He should explain why preventing a nuclear Iran avoids a larger war; why America’s enemies are increasingly working together; and why supporting the Iranian people is our strongest long-term strategic advantage against the regime.
The clock is approaching midnight in the Persian Gulf. The president’s opportunity to bring the American people with him is slipping away. He should seize it before Tehran does.
