The United States and Iran continue to trade blows over the Strait of Hormuz. The strait has become the central sticking point between them: Washington seeks to ensure unrestricted navigation and fully reopen it, while Tehran is attempting to establish itself as its gatekeeper and charge a fee for its use. These are fundamental differences, and for now, there is no sign of compromise.
It’s easy to understand why both countries are focused on this issue.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main outlet for energy exports from the Persian Gulf to global markets, and under normal conditions, roughly 20% of the world’s oil consumption passes through it. America’s sensitivity to oil-price volatility helps explain how an issue that was relatively marginal at the beginning of the war became the focal point of the current power struggle. Iran, too, sees an opportunity to alter the status quo in the Gulf to its advantage, project regional power and offset some of the heavy economic losses it has suffered in recent months.
This is a serious problem. But it must not distract attention from the truly urgent one, buried somewhere underground: nearly half a metric ton of uranium enriched to 60%. Iran’s nuclear program was significantly damaged in the latest military operations, but its residual ability to produce a bomb remains. Iran could attempt to relocate part of the stockpile to a covert facility, operate the limited number of centrifuges still available to it and complete the final step of enrichment to weapons-grade.
The problem is not only one of capability. The attacks may also have significantly strengthened Iran’s motivation to acquire a nuclear weapon, which the regime could increasingly see as its ultimate insurance policy against future attempts to overthrow it. The growing influence of hardline elements within the Iranian system, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, also raises the risk that Iran will begin—or perhaps has already begun—covert steps designed to turn it into a nuclear-armed state.
Airstrikes can destroy facilities and centrifuges, but they don’t necessarily eliminate the nuclear material itself. A durable solution requires removing enriched uranium from Iran or verifiably diluting it back to its natural enrichment level.
Some may argue that the material is “entombed,” as U.S. President Donald Trump himself has said. But anyone who has worked in intelligence understands that it is nearly impossible to guarantee airtight monitoring of a covert Iranian effort to move part of it to an unknown location. History shows that military nuclear programs are rarely discovered in their early stages, in part because of the extensive deception and secrecy surrounding them.
For now, Iran is benefiting from the vacuum. There is no agreement between Washington and Tehran while the world remains preoccupied with Hormuz. As a result, the gravest strategic threat to Israel and the United States remains unanswered and has been pushed into the secondary headlines.
Any updated strategy toward Iran must address the enriched uranium and rest on a clear hierarchy of priorities: removal or verified dilution should be the objective of any future agreement. Until that is achieved, strict, continuous, on-site monitoring must be the minimum condition. That must be the red line and the top priority for the United States. At the same time, Israel and the United States must improve their ability to detect preparations for renewed enrichment, weaponization or a possible nuclear test in the desert—a possibility that has become significantly more plausible in recent weeks.
The world is watching the Strait of Hormuz, which poses an immediate challenge to the global economy and could help shore up the Iranian regime, both financially and in terms of regional prestige. It is a major problem, but it is secondary to the nuclear danger taking shape inside Iran.
Trump has repeatedly declared that he will not allow Iran to become a nuclear-armed state. What is needed now is a strategy—and a verifiable agreement—capable of turning that pledge into reality.
